How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Pattern: Swift Boots is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC (16:00 to 19:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 655% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 0.581 · typical 73s 61c

Best hours to sell

00:00 to 03:00 UTC

16:00 to 19:00 Pacific · index 1.528 · typical 4g 78s 72c

Spread after the 5% cut

+655%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pattern: Swift Bootsby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	4g 64s 33c	3g 89s 33c	18	1.531	3
01:00	17:00	5g 82s 50c	3g 75s	16	1.665	2
02:00	18:00	3g 89s 33c	2g 34s 33c	23	1.389	3
03:00	19:00	3g 22s 67c	2g 18s	24	1.290	3
04:00	20:00	84s	52s	34	1.019	2
05:00	21:00	71s 25c	40s 50c	36	0.967	2
06:00	22:00	2g 35s 17c	1g 37s 67c	29	1.068	3
07:00	23:00	87s 50c	45s	42	0.886	1
08:00	00:00	87s	45s	44	0.998	1
09:00	01:00	77s	39s	40	0.915	1
10:00	02:00	77s	39s	38	0.948	1
11:00	03:00	49s	39s	38	0.656	1
13:00	05:00	42s	35s	31	0.666	1
14:00	06:00	1g 79s 50c	1g 64s 50c	22	0.832	2
15:00	07:00	1g 79s 50c	1g 62s	21	0.965	2
16:00	08:00	3g 9s 50c	2g 99s	14	1.333	1
17:00	09:00	1g 38s	1g 34s	15	0.796	3
18:00	10:00	1g 38s	1g 32s 33c	15	0.850	3
19:00	11:00	1g 63s 67c	1g 20s	23	1.220	2
20:00	12:00	51s 50c	49s	16	0.456	2
21:00	13:00	51s 50c	49s	15	0.487	2
22:00	14:00	1g 17s 83c	82s 67c	15	0.801	3
23:00	15:00	2g 5s	1g 50s	26	1.264	1

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/7453 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.999	1.031	4
01:00	17:00	0.992	1.055	4
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.119	5
03:00	19:00	0.998	1.158	4
04:00	20:00	0.994	1.182	4
05:00	21:00	1.007	1.211	4
06:00	22:00	1.014	1.255	5
07:00	23:00	0.955	0.998	3
08:00	00:00	0.968	1.133	1
09:00	01:00	0.966	1.140	2
10:00	02:00	0.974	1.077	3
11:00	03:00	0.991	1.040	3
12:00	04:00	1.105	0.795	1
13:00	05:00	0.985	0.943	1
14:00	06:00	1.009	0.896	4
15:00	07:00	1.000	0.848	3
16:00	08:00	1.046	0.809	2
17:00	09:00	0.999	0.833	4
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.847	4
19:00	11:00	1.018	0.869	3
20:00	12:00	0.982	0.936	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.947	3
22:00	14:00	1.028	0.908	4
23:00	15:00	0.994	0.970	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pattern: Swift Boots?: On Normal Alliance US, Pattern: Swift Boots is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC (16:00 to 19:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 655% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.