How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Elder's Amber Stave is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 93% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 0.792 · typical 93s 25c

Best hours to sell

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

08:00 to 11:00 Pacific · index 1.134 · typical 1g 63s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

+93%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Elder's Amber Staveby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 31s 50c	1g 31s	8	0.982	2
01:00	17:00	1g 31s 50c	1g 30s 50c	8	0.998	2
02:00	18:00	1g 42s 33c	1g 41s 67c	6	1.076	3
03:00	19:00	94s 33c	68s	14	0.866	1
04:00	20:00	1g 41s 67c	1g 8s 67c	7	1.085	3
05:00	21:00	1g 30s 50c	81s	8	1.022	2
06:00	22:00	1g 68s	1g 68s	4	1.185	1
07:00	23:00	1g 30s 50c	1g 17s	8	1.045	2
08:00	00:00	1g 24s 25c	1g 9s	7	0.982	2
09:00	01:00	78s 50c	57s	5	0.707	2
12:00	04:00	1g 68s	1g 54s	3	1.179	2
13:00	05:00	1g 68s	1g 68s	1	1.172	1
14:00	06:00	1g 26s	1g 26s	2	0.926	3
15:00	07:00	1g 40s	1g 40s	3	1.059	1
16:00	08:00	1g 68s	1g 68s	1	1.143	1
17:00	09:00	1g 68s	1g 68s	1	1.132	1
18:00	10:00	1g 54s	1g 34s	4	1.125	2
19:00	11:00	1g 22s 50c	75s	5	0.931	2
20:00	12:00	1g 25c	95s 67c	2	0.951	3
21:00	13:00	75s	72s 50c	6	0.618	2
22:00	14:00	1g 4s 50c	72s 50c	6	0.808	2
23:00	15:00	1g 34s	1g 31s 50c	7	1.008	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/7609 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.978	1.041	4
01:00	17:00	0.997	1.031	3
02:00	18:00	0.994	1.069	4
03:00	19:00	1.004	1.124	2
04:00	20:00	0.978	1.175	4
05:00	21:00	0.984	1.237	4
06:00	22:00	0.983	1.087	3
07:00	23:00	0.970	1.392	3
08:00	00:00	0.964	1.363	3
09:00	01:00	1.437	0.751	2
10:00	02:00	1.025	1.058	1
11:00	03:00	1.020	0.985	3
12:00	04:00	0.973	0.993	3
13:00	05:00	1.014	0.892	2
14:00	06:00	0.973	0.879	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.977	0.840	1
17:00	09:00	0.958	0.858	1
18:00	10:00	0.942	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.973	0.797	4
20:00	12:00	0.993	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.971	0.940	3
22:00	14:00	0.976	0.975	3
23:00	15:00	0.967	1.032	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Elder's Amber Stave?: On Normal Horde US, Elder's Amber Stave is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 93% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.