How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Plans: Mithril Spurs is cheapest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 41% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

13:00 to 16:00 UTC

05:00 to 08:00 Pacific · index 0.847 · typical 11g 33s

Best hours to sell

01:00 to 04:00 UTC

17:00 to 20:00 Pacific · index 1.172 · typical 12g 40s

Spread after the 5% cut

+41%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Plans: Mithril Spursby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	12g 15s	11g 77s	10	1.053	2
01:00	17:00	13g 76s	7g 27s 50c	8	1.355	2
02:00	18:00	11g 80s	7g 27s 50c	14	1.066	2
03:00	19:00	11g 65s	7g 27s 50c	13	1.093	2
04:00	20:00	11g 41s	7g 27s 50c	14	1.075	2
05:00	21:00	12g 51s	9g 85s	9	0.983	3
06:00	22:00	12g 7s	9g 66s 67c	12	0.960	3
07:00	23:00	13g 31s	13g 12s	13	0.986	3
08:00	00:00	16g 34s	14g 50s	8	0.987	2
09:00	01:00	15g	12g 50s	7	0.925	2
10:00	02:00	11g 33s	10g 99s	8	0.883	3
11:00	03:00	14g 50s	13g	9	0.915	2
13:00	05:00	9g	6g	13	0.858	1
14:00	06:00	12g	9g 66s 33c	7	0.829	3
15:00	07:00	13g	9g 49s 50c	11	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	12g 99s	9g 49s 50c	11	0.881	2
17:00	09:00	12g 99s	9g 47s 50c	10	0.911	2
18:00	10:00	20g	10g	7	1.059	1
19:00	11:00	20g	10g	7	1.071	1
20:00	12:00	12g 49s	7g 95s	11	0.989	2
21:00	13:00	19g	5g	4	1.086	1
22:00	14:00	20g	19g	3	1.171	1
23:00	15:00	13g 30s	13g 3s	8	1.007	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/7989 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Plans: Mithril Spurs?: On PvP Alliance US, Plans: Mithril Spurs is cheapest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 41% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.