How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Large Red Sack is cheapest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

12:00 to 15:00 UTC

04:00 to 07:00 Pacific · index 0.927 · typical 90s 50c

Best hours to sell

01:00 to 04:00 UTC

17:00 to 20:00 Pacific · index 1.075 · typical 75s 80c

Spread after the 5% cut

-11%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Large Red Sackby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	67s 20c	48s	20	0.965	2
01:00	17:00	92s 78c	68s 33c	15	1.262	3
02:00	18:00	67s 50c	66s 50c	30	0.981	2
03:00	19:00	67s 13c	59s 50c	29	0.983	2
04:00	20:00	94s 58c	91s	28	1.061	3
05:00	21:00	94s 50c	90s	25	1.076	4
06:00	22:00	93s 29c	89s 75c	26	1.070	4
07:00	23:00	79s 50c	71s	33	0.948	4
08:00	00:00	89s 67c	79s	20	0.984	3
09:00	01:00	79s 50c	74s 50c	29	1.012	2
10:00	02:00	89s	84s	20	1.036	4
11:00	03:00	1g 2s 67c	76s 67c	23	1.117	3
12:00	04:00	1g	1g	8	0.870	1
13:00	05:00	88s 50c	77s 50c	34	0.963	2
14:00	06:00	83s	65s	28	0.946	3
15:00	07:00	74s	59s 50c	27	0.981	2
16:00	08:00	82s 17c	78s	19	0.946	3
17:00	09:00	95s 50c	92s	14	0.949	4
18:00	10:00	89s 50c	89s	13	0.966	2
19:00	11:00	89s	89s	15	0.982	2
20:00	12:00	66s 75c	66s 50c	21	0.927	2
21:00	13:00	78s 33c	78s	13	1.002	1
22:00	14:00	88s 50c	86s	15	1.001	2
23:00	15:00	76s 33c	76s	17	0.971	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/857 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Large Red Sack?: On PvP Alliance US, Large Red Sack is cheapest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.