How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Night Watch Shortsword is cheapest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific) and dearest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 84% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

12:00 to 15:00 UTC

04:00 to 07:00 Pacific · index 0.776 · typical 1g 5s 67c

Best hours to sell

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 1.253 · typical 1g 96s 50c

Spread after the 5% cut

+84%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Night Watch Shortswordby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 24s 33c	1g 20s 33c	20	0.961	3
01:00	17:00	1g 8s 44c	87s 67c	12	1.176	3
02:00	18:00	86s 50c	84s 50c	18	0.960	2
03:00	19:00	86s 50c	86s	15	0.957	2
04:00	20:00	1g 24s	94s	14	0.969	3
05:00	21:00	1g 16s 50c	86s 75c	14	0.970	4
06:00	22:00	1g 16s 17c	91s 75c	12	0.988	4
07:00	23:00	1g 3s 25c	86s 25c	15	0.922	4
08:00	00:00	1g 10s 67c	95s 67c	15	0.928	3
09:00	01:00	1g 3s 50c	90s 33c	15	0.911	3
10:00	02:00	96s 25c	89s 75c	13	0.925	4
11:00	03:00	99s 73c	94s	14	0.921	3
12:00	04:00	1g 19s	1g 11s	18	0.892	1
13:00	05:00	89s	88s 33c	8	0.611	3
14:00	06:00	1g 9s	1g 4s 25c	14	0.826	4
15:00	07:00	91s 50c	87s	9	0.989	2
16:00	08:00	98s	88s	15	0.951	3
17:00	09:00	1g 17s 89c	1g 10s	14	1.186	3
18:00	10:00	99s	94s 50c	18	0.952	2
19:00	11:00	1g 81s	1g 76s 67c	13	1.118	3
20:00	12:00	1g 89s 33c	1g 63s 33c	12	1.300	3
21:00	13:00	2g 21s 50c	2g 17s 50c	8	1.278	2
22:00	14:00	1g 78s 67c	1g 30s 67c	12	1.181	3
23:00	15:00	1g 54s	1g 12s 75c	18	1.128	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/935 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Night Watch Shortsword?: On PvP Alliance US, Night Watch Shortsword is cheapest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific) and dearest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 84% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.