How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Fortified Belt is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 134% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 0.854 · typical 15s 33c

Best hours to sell

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

14:00 to 17:00 Pacific · index 1.286 · typical 29s 14c

Spread after the 5% cut

+134%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Fortified Beltby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	49s 25c	41s	17	1.558	4
01:00	17:00	12s	10s	20	1.065	2
02:00	18:00	21s 67c	11s 33c	19	0.902	3
03:00	19:00	12s	9s	29	1.100	1
04:00	20:00	21s 67c	11s 33c	21	0.904	3
05:00	21:00	17s 7c	12s 67c	26	1.019	3
06:00	22:00	15s	12s	22	0.832	2
07:00	23:00	10s	9s	23	0.915	2
08:00	00:00	13s 33c	10s 33c	24	0.879	3
09:00	01:00	14s 67c	11s 67c	19	1.037	3
10:00	02:00	14s 50c	10s 50c	24	0.904	2
11:00	03:00	17s	14s	16	0.663	2
12:00	04:00	14s 50c	11s	19	0.994	2
13:00	05:00	18s	12s	20	1.160	1
14:00	06:00	12s	11s	17	0.916	2
15:00	07:00	10s	10s	13	0.912	1
16:00	08:00	13s	11s	12	0.862	1
17:00	09:00	14s	10s	10	0.943	1
18:00	10:00	11s 25c	10s	18	0.901	2
19:00	11:00	12s 50c	10s 50c	14	1.008	2
20:00	12:00	26s	20s 33c	13	1.121	3
21:00	13:00	25s 33c	20s 33c	17	1.104	3
22:00	14:00	24s 67c	16s 67c	20	1.122	3
23:00	15:00	13s 50c	10s	19	1.179	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/9814 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Fortified Belt?: On Normal Horde US, Fortified Belt is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 134% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.